论价值工程在软件项目管理中的应用

随着社会经济的发展和产业化步伐的加快,价值工程理论在各领域的应用越发广泛,尤其是在IT领域,伴随着新技术新产品不断涌现,体系化、规范化的软件项目管理方法正在构建和形成,其领域内的研究与应用也将推动关联产业的成长与发展。本文通过对价值工程和信息项目管理相关内容的分析,探讨如何将价值工程理论应用于软件项目管理过程,为软件项目管理提供有力支持。     

¿Hay evidencia de ciclo político-económico en el empleo sectorial de México, 1998-2013?

This paper looks for evidence of political-business cycles associated to the presidential elections in the Mexican sectorial employment over the period 1998-2013. By estimating panel data models, and controlling for the effects of the major determinants of employment, no evidence consistent with the predictions of the theoretical opportunistic model is found, i.e. whereas employment shows an expansion before and during the elections periods, the estimates are neither statistically significant nor robust. Furthermore, employment does not experience contractions after the elections or the office taking periods. Notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that employment is positively and negatively affected by output and real wages, respectively.     

The Political Economy of Fiscal Supervision and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Germany

In many federal countries, local governments run large deficits, even when fiscal supervision by state authorities is tight. I investigate the extent to which party alignment of governments and fiscal supervisors influences budget deficits. The data set includes 427 German local governments for the period 2000–2004. I exploit a period after a far‐reaching institutional reform that entirely re‐distributed political powers on both the government level and the fiscal supervisor level. The results do not show that party alignments of governments and supervisors (co‐partisanship) drive short‐term deficits. Instead, I find that the ideology of partisan governments and supervisors matters: left‐wing local governments run higher deficits than their right‐wing counterparts; left‐wing supervisors tolerate higher deficits than right‐wing supervisors. These findings imply that political independence for fiscal supervisors is recommended.     

Creative tourism in Balinese rural communities

The present study extends knowledge on creative tourism in rural areas. It was unclear from previous research how features of creative tourism, such as risk of commodification, play out in rural areas of developing countries. The study built on theoretical overlaps which suggest that creative tourism may improve the potential of community-based tourism. Literature suggested that creative tourism may address three issues plaguing community-based tourism: (1) lack of financial resources could be circumvented with intangible heritage; (2) loss of cultural identity could be reversed by sparking interest for culture; (3) power relations between hosts and guests could be rebalanced by repositioning locals from servant to teacher. These theoretical overlaps were explored in the context of five Balinese villages using a microethnographic approach with participant observations and expert interviews. Findings from this study partly confirm and extend the theoretical synergies. Furthermore, a new synergy, increasing enthusiasm for intercultural exchange, and one negative interaction, intangibility as a differentiator, were found. Findings also revealed conditions for success in developing creative tourism in a community-based tourism context. In sum, we contribute the conclusion that creative tourism in rural areas is promising under certain conditions.     

李白的人生理念和政治抱负

李白是唐代伟大的浪漫主义爱国诗人,生活在唐王朝由鼎盛转入衰败时期。他胸怀“济苍生,安社稷”的远大志向,以大鹏自喻,坚信“天生我才必有用”,为了社稷和黎民的利益,一生为之而奋斗。     

The dynamics of financial development,globalisation, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa

The importance of life expectancy is recognised in the development economics literature because of its increasing effects on labour productivity and economic growth in long‐run. However, no published study to date empirically examines the nonlinear relationships between globalisation, financial development, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. Therefore, our study intends to fill this gap by using non‐parametric cointegration test and multivariate Granger causality test towards a non‐linear empirical understanding of the factors affecting the life expectancy. We consider the case of 16 sub‐Saharan African economies using annual data over the period 1970–2012. The empirical analysis indicates that financial development, globalisation and economic growth appear to have a positive impact upon life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African economies, except for Gabon and Togo. Our empirical findings may provide insightful policy implications towards improving population health conditions which are vital for promoting the productivity of labour force and long‐run economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries. In light of these policy implications, governments should incorporate globalisation, financial development and economic growth as key economic instruments in formulating sustainable developmental policy to promote life expectancy for the people in sub‐Saharan African countries.     

复杂动态环境下产业集群创新中的群体知识协同行为模型构建

在复杂动态环境下,知识协同行为（KCB）是产业集群创新（ICI）活动的有力支撑,构建复杂动态环境下产业集群创新中的群体知识协同行为模型具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。在分析复杂动态环境下产业集群创新与群体知识协同行为耦合规律的基础上,构建了复杂动态环境下产业集群创新中的群体与协同行为模型（CDE I KCBM）。与已有研究相比,该模型不仅可以反映随时间不断变化的动态演化规律,也可反映复杂动态环境下产业集群创新和群体知识协同行为的内在关联本质,有助于揭示二者的循环反馈关系。     

剥离环境因素的中国高技术产业创新效率综合测度研究

由于未剔除环境因素和随机误差的影响,运用传统数据包络分析（DEA）和随机前沿分析（SFA）对高技术产业创新效率进行研究,容易引起评价结果误差。采用二者相结合的三阶段DEA模型对高技术产业创新效率及其影响因素进行测度与分析,能够保证评价结果的有效性。研究结果显示：规模效率不足是限制我国高技术产业创新效率提升的关键因素;另外,市场开放度能够显著正向促进高技术产业创新效率提升,而政府资助、地区经济发展和地区竞争不利于创新效率提升。最后,对投入要素与技术效率进行聚类分析,将我国内地28个省市划分为4种创新类型,并〖JP〗提出提升高技术产业创新效率的政策建议。     

基于LCA的城市绿地管养对环境影响的量化方法探讨

城市绿地是重要的绿色基础设施。城市绿地要实现设计目标,保持长久的景观效果离不开持续不断地养护管理,同时管养工作又会带来物资消耗和废弃物排放,对环境造成负面影响。基于生命周期评价方法(LCA),以资源能源消耗和气候变暖潜值作为对环境影响的主要因子,将城市绿地划分为乔木、灌木、地被和草坪层,建立了管养对环境影响的量化模型。以郑州市郑东新区绿地为研究对象,选取34个植物群落(20m×20m)为样本进行了验证,计算得到各植物层管养资源能源消耗和气候变暖潜值特征量以及管养工作标准化加权环境影响指数。结果表明,乔木的管养环境影响指数最低,比群落均值低32%;施肥和垃圾清运是环境影响的主要因素,占群落管养环境影响指数均值的75%以上;与农林业相比,城市绿地管养环境影响指数处中低水平,但资源能源消耗因子的影响指数偏高。基于LCA方法的研究结果可以为城市绿地设计和精细化管理提供量化参考。     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of secukinumab in ankylosing spondylitis from the Canadian perspective

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of interleukin (IL)-17A inhibitor secukinumab vs the currently licensed biologic therapies in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients from a Canadian healthcare system perspective.

Methods: A decision analytic model (semi-Markov) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab 150?mg compared to certolizumab pegol, adalimumab, golimumab, etanercept and etanercept biosimilar, and infliximab and infliximab biosimilar in a biologic-naïve population, over 60 years of time horizon (lifetime). The Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI 50) response rate was used to assess treatment response at week 12. Non-responders or patients discontinuing initial-line of biologic therapy were allowed to switch to subsequent-line biologics. Model input parameters (short-term and long-term changes in BASDAI and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index [BASFI], withdrawal rates, adverse events, costs, resource use, utilities, and disutilities) were obtained from clinical trials, published literature, and other Canadian sources. Benefits were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost and benefits were discounted with an annual discount rate of 1.5% for all treatments.

Results: In the biologic-naïve population, secukinumab 150?mg dominated all comparators, as patients treated with secukinumab 150?mg achieved the highest QALYs (16.46) at the lowest cost (CAD 533,010) over a lifetime horizon vs comparators. In the deterministic sensitivity analysis, results were most sensitive to changes in baseline BASFI non-responders, BASDAI 50 at 3 months and discount rates. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that secukinumab 150?mg demonstrated higher probability of achieving maximum net monetary benefit vs all comparators at various cost thresholds.

Conclusions: This analysis demonstrates that secukinumab 150?mg is the most cost-effective treatment option for biologic-naïve AS patients compared to certolizumab pegol, adalimumab, golimumab, etanercept and etanercept biosimilar, and infliximab and infliximab biosimilar for a lifetime horizon in Canada. Treatment with secukinumab translates into substantial benefits for patients and the healthcare system.